Pork Trends
January 9, 2026
All pork pricing trends are based on USDA data as of January 2, 2026.
Weekly Hog Harvest
2.228 MM
+12-13% from last week
The USDA reported a weekly hog harvest of 2.228 MM hogs last week. This level is roughly 12-13% higher than the prior week, due to the holiday. The 2025 calendar year concluded with a total hog harvest down 1.5% from 2024.
Loins
Both the bone-in and boneless loin markets decreased. Seasonal demand is fair, but is improving as the value of this market increases; and supply is good, due to seasonal harvest increases, according to analysts. Historically, there has been some brief softness in the loin complex following the holidays.
Tenders
The pork tenderloin market increased fractionally. The USDA continues to report varying levels of promotional frequency in the retail space. Historically, downward momentum in the pork tenderloin market slows towards the end of Q4, and the market has been stabilizing in recent weeks.
Butts
The bone-in pork butt market continued to increase. Supply has been slightly tighter through the holidays despite healthy demand, according to analysts. The USDA continues to report strong levels of promotional activity in the retail space. Historically, upward momentum in the butt market begins to slow after the holidays.
Ribs
The rib markets pushed higher, except for St. Louis-style spareribs. Seasonal demand remains fair to weak, although forward booking demand has been supportive, according to analysts. Historically, both the backrib and sparerib markets pivot higher by January on the prospects of forward demand.
Bellies/bacon
The belly market composite edged fractionally higher. Elevated, cyclical harvest levels have been pressuring the markets from a supply perspective, according to analysts, pushing them to seasonal lows. Historically, the belly markets bottom around December, then pivot consistently higher into January and sometimes beyond.
Hams
The firming ham markets fell sharply lower. Sharp gains were reported for heavy hams over the holidays, but it appears that demand has abruptly slowed, according to analysts, who note that holiday and export demand can lead to fluctuations in the ham markets. Historically, following any post-holiday correction, the ham markets typically stabilize by mid-January.
Trimmings
Both 72% lean and 42% fat trimmings pivoted slightly higher. Both markets experienced some correction in late December, as holiday demand diminished and harvest levels remained seasonally very strong, according to analysts. Historically, the trimming markets begin to stabilize in January and then push higher.
Picnics
The picnic markets moved lower. The bone-in picnic market historically rises throughout the calendar year, peaking in late December or early January, so this market is likely on the cusp of a potential correction. The boneless picnic market historically eases lower in January as well.
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